Most cities are seeing their CMI drop quickly now as inventory rises. Because supply has been so low recently, the increases are large in percentage terms. For example Chandler has 150 active single-family listings (excluding UCB and CCBS) which is double the 75 it had at the beginning of April. However, the long term average count for Chandler is 940 and the maximum we have measured was 2,481. So 150 would seem very low if we had not seen 75 three months earlier.
Paradise Valley is not seeing much of an increase in supply so far, but its demand has been falling from unusually high levels.
Cave Creek is unusual in that its supply is at a similar level to April. It has been zooming up the chart and looks likely to reach the number two spot soon.
With more supply to choose from, and list prices increasing more slowly, some buyers are being attracted back into the market. We are seeing a slight rise in demand in several cities. These include Glendale, Maricopa and Queen Creek. When supply increases and demand falls, the CMI heads down very quickly, but if demand starts to rise at the same time as supply increases, the CMI's rate of decline could well moderate.
An interesting time to be watching the market.