As we are many weeks into the global pandemic, I wanted to shed some light on the Arizona Real Estate Market and show what's occurred over the time of the pandemic. We've included charts, and graphs to provide facts and stats for your review. If you'd like me to send you a report on your zip code, city or neighborhood, or explain any of this info then please text or call me at 602.697.0029 or email me back here. Please stay safe and healthy as we tackle the various challenges together.
This information was obtained from the Cromford Report:
Market Summary for the Beginning of May
Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2020 compared with May 1, 2019 for all areas & types:
In summary, supply went up, demand came down, sales dropped sharply and prices weakened slightly, the latter because of large changes to the sales mix. The summer lull in luxury home transactions has come 2 months early in 2020.
We do not anticipate any fast return to normality, which would need sales to increase by 35% from where we are now. This would require a quick end to the pandemic which does not look likely. We are a long way from herd immunity and a vaccine that can be supplied in large enough quantities is not expected in the short term. This means the market must adapt to a new normal. This will be very different from the old normal and probably last for several quarters.
Sales pricing will look a little weak for the next 5 months (at least) because the market over $350,000 has seen a larger fall off in transactions than the market under $350,000. The sales prices do not reflect a fall in home values, however, which continue to be supported by the fact that the lower demand is still in excess of our meagre supply. Home prices are unlikely to fall without a glut of homes for sale, something that does not look likely at this point. Almost no foreclosures took place in May and many borrowers took advantage of the government imposed forbearance on lenders. The greatest risk to the market is in what happens to lenders and loan servicers over the next 12 months.
Over 100 indicates a sellers market
Supply is low
2.4 months supply is a sellers market and very low inventory